Betting on the Come ..

Betting on the Come” is a gambling term. In cards, it’s when a player doesn’t quite have the hand s/he needs, but will place or increase their bet in the hopes they’ll get the card they need to win.

For me, it’s a Craps term. I play Craps .. well, when I can get to Las Vegas (and I’m hoping to in the coming year .. has been too long). ‘Betting on the Come’ in Craps means the dice select the number on which your bet will be placed, and when this number is thrown again (before a 7), the player wins. I know .. it sounds a bit circular. Think of it as a Quick Pick in Lotto.

I am not a Doctor ..“, but I feel like the states that are opening in defiance of the “Support for States, Tribes, Localities and Territories” guidance published by the CDC are ‘Betting on the Come’. Now, in cards or in craps, it means money is on the table and a bet can be lost.

With COVID-19, it can mean:

  • At the least, longer in Shelter in Place for many (or all).
  • The risk of a second wave.
  • At the worst: an increase in the numbers of cases and deaths.

.. or any / all of the above.

The states are betting on things like:

  • People will “Behave Like They Have It ..“, practicing social distancing, wearing masks, avoiding large groups, and so many other activities that protect all of us.
  • People, Cities and States will protect the most vulnerable from those who behave (or don’t).
  • Hospital resources can handle any additional capacity from those who behave (or don’t).
  • States and Communities will roll out “Testing, Testing, Testing” and “Contact Tracing“.
  • Remdesivir will give critical patients an extra edge to survive .. but note this is only after they’re hospitalized.
  • Herd Immunity will start to grow, protecting the bulk of the population (not necessarily the most vulnerable).
  • A vaccine will appear .. the earliest, and only for emergency use, is projected to January 2021.

We’re a big, diverse country. The states

In short (too late!) “Let’s Not Undo ..” all that we’ve gone through up to this point. Let’s not roll back the clock and the wave of infection growth to two weeks past (the incubation period) pre-shelter levels. For context:

  • Shelter in Place appeared mid- to end-of-March (I’ve been SIP since March 13th and Georgia Ordered and Commanded it on April 1st.).
  • On April 1st, the US death toll was ~4,300.
  • The present US death toll (noon on May 1, 2020) is 63,127.

30 days. 59,123 lives lost. This is with Shelter in Place, Social Distancing and all the rest.

It’s not just me: “As states ease coronavirus restrictions, some are taking a ‘significant risk,’ Fauci says“. He also “.. warns states against ‘leapfrogging’ guidelines on reopening“.

They (the States) are .. leapfrogging, that is.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

About Michael Coates
I am a pragmatic evangelist. The products, services and solutions I write about fulfill real-world expectations and use cases. I stay up-to-date on real products I use and review, and share my thoughts here. I apply the same lens when designing an architecture, product or when writing papers. I am always looking for ways that technology can create or enhance a business opportunity .. not just technology for technology's sake. My CV says: Seasoned technology executive, leveraging years of experience with enterprise and integration architectural patterns, executed with healthy doses of business acumen and pragmatism. That's me. My web site says: Technology innovations provide a myriad of opportunities for businesses. That said, having the "latest and greatest" for its own sake isn't always a recipe for success. Business successes gained through exploiting innovation relies on analysis of how the new features will enhance your business followed by effective implementation. Goals vary far and wide: streamlining operations, improving customer experience, extending brand, and many more. In all cases, you must identify and collect the metrics you can apply to measure your success. Analysis must be holistic and balanced: business and operational needs must be considered when capitalizing on a new technology asset or opportunity.

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