The Resolved

Folks who’ve had it, survived and have gotten well. Are they:

  • Immune to re-infection?
  • Still contagious without new exposure?
  • Contagious if they’re exposed to an infected person (or tiger)?
  • How do we know?

The last answer is obvious: testing, testing, testing. This gets pretty granular; I’ll cover this in another post.

At the least, a Resolved will have antibodies that can defeat the virus with which doctors are doing serum testing. This is not a new treatment strategy (1889-1895), so I’m hopeful. Further, a Resolved could potentially go back to their jobs, helping to soften the blow on our economy and our companies .. if they meet the criteria (and others, I’m sure) from the list above.

Until you have had it .. and gotten over it, none of this applies to you or to me. “Behave like you have it ..

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

A Ray of Hope .. and a Scary Image

I don’t agree with the light at the end of the tunnel statement bounced around .. not yet, anyway, but I am hopeful. Note that even though you can see the light, you’re still in the tunnel.

Nor am I with “game changer” statements .. through distancing, we are making progress on transmission, but not on therapy, non-proximity prevention, a vaccine or a cure. With that said, I’m a fan of treating symptoms if it gives the patient enough time to defeat the virus.

New York notes a possible flattening of the curve over the last few days. Italy and Spain as well. This means the physical distancing is working.

Then, there’s this bit from China: “The great crawl of China: Tens of thousands of Chinese tourists are stuck at a jam-packed tourist attraction after it reopened amid coronavirus pandemic“.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

“The Virus Is Unpredictable ..”

.. I disagree. I heard it on the news today .. I’m not even sure who said it.

It’s not. It’s quite predictable, actually:

  • It is deadly, more so to the ‘at risk’ population, but potentially to all.
  • It transmits person-to-person, with or without symptoms.
  • Staying at home will reduce transmission .. this is the one weapon in our arsenal that can make real change right now.

We have enough data to model effectively, now referring to outbreaks as ‘waves’. These waves have predictable progress, crests (which impact health asset utilization in an area) and outcomes. Some of these data are impacted by age and population density, indicating we should all be cautious. Lessons learned in one wave can help planning in others.

One commentator likened to our present experiences to watching ‘a slow-motion car crash’. This does sound familiar: we can see the predictive, data-driven outcomes unfold before our very eyes. Unhappily, it feels like the lack of coordination, confusing messaging and general bickering are running the risk of making this worse for all.

What can we do? Well:

  • Stay on target .. The Queen just addressed the UK (and the world).
  • Limit our contact with others.
  • Six feet apart.
  • If we do have to go out, wear masks in public to reduce (not eliminate) the risk to ourselves and others.

Most important: stay home. Regardless of when the stay-at-home orders were implemented, Cities and States who have locked down are seeing slower growth of transmission by the metric of fewer cases.

We can only control ourselves. We can only contribute to the greater good by doing the right thing.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

What we are doing is working ..

.. So, let’s not change it. Let’s manage it.

Physical Distancing is working. The rate of detected cases are reducing, even with more testing .. even in the hot areas.

Testing, testing, testing.

Most of us are getting the right idea .. Even these guys: “A Florida county is reminding people to maintain a distance of at least one alligator between each other“.

On the other side .. There are still (eight, as of this writing) states who have not enforced social distancing. Dr. Brix doesn’t think this is a good idea: “Birx warns holdout states about social distancing“. Will they be the next post-Mardi Gras New Orleans?

Here’s the map from the New York Times: “Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count“. Updated fairly often. The CDC has an AAG that closes at 4pm daily.

Yes: some of the case counts look low .. But we must consider state population, population density and how much testing a state is doing. Given the aggressive nature of this virus, I suspect the per-capita numbers are not that far off. I am looking for these data.

We must pull together .. but by staying apart. For now.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

“I won’t .. “

Not me .. I will. I wore one yesterday to Costco and again today to Sprouts. I didn’t feel out of place, look silly or draw any stares (well, no more than normal) from anyone.

A mask.

Not so much the guy in the White House.

I’m not going to get political, but I am going to advocate for common sense:

  • CDC  issued “Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission” today. In anticipation of this (it wasn’t actually a secret), I posted “Respect the Mask” earlier today.
  • He, his VP and those around him are getting the rapid CoViD-19 (capitalization intentional, as here is how the virus was named .. I’m going back to all-caps hereafter) test on a regular basis. I agree with this: he, his VP and critical team .. not to mention the Chain of Command being tested on a regular basis is a very good thing.
  • While a less-than N95 won’t protect you fully, it will likely protect others from you .. please recall COVID-19 can be transmitted asymptomatically .. that is, without symptoms. You may not know you have it and transmit it to others. Remember “Behave like you have it ..“? I do .. I wrote it. Nothing original therein .. Just common sense (again) when sorting a challenge with multiple unknowns.

Wear a mask or a scarf. Be careful. Stay informed.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

Respect the Mask

CDC guidance on masks for everyone to be issued today. Likely patterned after “Interim Guidance for the Use of Masks to Control Seasonal Influenza Virus Transmission“, but with A COVID-19 spin.

Masks do not make you invincible. Wearing one (even the N95 itself) does not empower you to ignore “Distancing .. Physical, not Social (please)” .. you still need to maintain our ‘new normal’ habits:

  • Wash your hands
  • Don’t touch your face
  • Stay 6′ from everyone

Any mask (even a scarf) will give you some protection from some spray droplets from others (and others from yours, should you sneeze), but not 100%, and not from aerosolized droplets.

As always: “I’m not a Doctor ..” .. listen to the advice of the CDC or your healthcare provider.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

No Magic Bullet ..

.. not yet:

  • No cure .. also, not yet.
  • No therapeutics (like any virus, we can only treat the symptoms while the patient fights it off).
  • No vaccine. While we have progress, 12-18 months is the best reality-based estimate today,
  • No idea who can transmit the disease.
  • No idea if we have it ourselves and can infect those we love.

Testing, testing and testing. Progress there:

  • While not a cure, it can identify people with the antibodies .. those who will likely be able to resist the virus. These folks could potentially return to a ‘normal’ level of activity.
  • The trick: sorting if they’re immune themselves, are they still transmitting the virus?
  • I’m certain there is more to discuss.

How soon will these tests be available to be deployed? In what volumes? In what areas? Who will get them first? Lots of references in the news about processing backlogs creating long delays.

At present, there are still not enough tests, and as it is possible for all of us to be transmitting this without symptoms .. we don’t know from whom to stay away.

In short: “Behave like you have it ..

Stay close. Stay home.

Ordered and Commanded

That is, a Shelter in Place order was just announced for my county: “ADMINISTRATIVE ORDER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH CONTROL MEASURES RELATED CTO COVID-19, DIRECTING ALL RESIDENTS OF FULTON COUNTY TO SHELTER IN PLACE“.

Three-pager full of WHEREAS and THEREFORE, and positing a $1,000 fine / 12 months in jail per offense.

As expected, essential workers are exempted, as are those who care for those who cannot care for themselves (including pets). Trips to the grocery are fine, as are walks and bike rides, as long as the six-foot distance is respected.

This is functionally similar to how other communities have been instructed to behave.

It’s for the best. The less we go out and the longer we stay at home, the better the chance we will finish this bit. The data tells us that coming out too soon only invites additional uncertainty .. and more time at home .. or worse.

On the lighter side, CBS58 informs us Dr. Fauci gets his own commemorative bobblehead in support of the Million Mask Challenge. We are still pulling together.

Stay close. Stay home.

Stepping Up

A lot of uncertainty, lots of medical supply shortages and a lot of folks who cannot care for themselves.

Thanks to all .. Companies and individuals who do. An incredibly short list, because there are so many out there:

Don’t forget the kids:

Not the least: our brave healthcare workers .. present, retired and volunteer, who are putting themselves and their families at risk by helping the rest of us.

Stay home for this lot so they can stay at work for us.

Be safe.

Need the Facts

When facts are numbers, we need the numbers.

Caveat: “I’m not a Doctor ..“. I am a Technical Sales Strategist .. I’ll detail this at one point or another. Read on, please.

prospects-funnelsOur agents manage customer engagements, performing outreach to identify sales opportunities for our clients and move these opportunities along to close. This is typically represented as a funnel .. just like the one in your kitchen. Unlike the one in your kitchen, which gives you a wide opening to move something into a smaller opening, the Sales Funnel demonstrates how a large number of potential customers make their way to a closed sale. As you can surmise, not everyone who expresses an initial interest will actually make a purchase:

Thanks to Upwork for the image.

 

This does not relate 1:1 to the Coronavirus, but here’s a short analogy:

  • Total population: count
  • Total infected: count / percentage
  • Resolve on their own: count / percentage
  • Total hospitalized: count / percentage
  • Resolved in hospital: count / percentage
  • Don’t resolve in the hospital

As you may surmise, that is oversimplified .. and you might also guess, there are temporal (time) and severity aspects to these steps, i.e.:

  • Duration for self-resolution
  • Length of hospital stay (impacts bed, supplies and services utilization)
  • The severity for a hospital stay (impacts regular beds, ICU beds, equipment, supplies and services)
  • Ventilator required (much-needed devices, noting there is a finite count)
  • Length of time on ventilators (impacts available ventilators for the next patient)
  • Age of the patient

.. and lots more .. Intermediate things like turning beds, turning rooms, turning ventilators, and so on.

Last, each country has its own set of cases, differing start dates, climates, etc.

While trying to calculate the funnel, I stumbled across Worldometers: Coronavirus which broke out the top-line numbers nicely for me .. from there the percentages are easy to calculate .. but the denominators are unknown:

  • How many tests?
  • How many positive / negative?
  • How many resolved?

Facts matter. The numbers matter.

Please stay at home and protect everyone while you do your research.

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