OpsanBlog

Testing, Testing, Testing

It’s not just ‘the’ test .. the one that confirms whether you have the virus (‘tested positive’) or not (‘tested negative’).

I started this thought in No Magic Bullet .. six days ago (sheesh .. has it only been six daze?) .. let’s work through it.

It gets pretty granular:

• Diagnostic Test: Referred to, above. It is a Point in Time test, ideally, performed often (before or after encounters, activities, going outside and so on). It gives you a positive or negative result only at that point in time. Technically, you’d have to re-test any time you changed places (work to home to the grocery store to anywhere), encountered someone new (or someone you encounter regularly encounters someone new), etc., etc. The most common use today is to test healthcare workers prior to their shifts. It’s not really practical for the rest of us. While reliable, the risk of the time between exposure to incubation (and therefore, detection) is still unknown.
• Antibody test: This is for the “The Resolved“. Those who have contracted the virus and survived it. Far fewer of these folks out there, but knowing who has recovered opens possibilities. These folks can provide a serum containing their antibodies and / or potentially be immune and return to work. Questions still exist: if they’re truly immune, or if they can shed virus if they’re further exposed, and so on.
• Broader tests .. tests everywhere, even for those who are not showing symptoms.

The bits above give us optics into our actual status, giving us a larger denominator when calculating mortality, providing more granular geographical and demographic data, and more.

Testing (testing and testing) is the key to considering how we can get from the ‘new normal’ of WFH (now) to the ‘newer normal’, where therapy encourages recovery, creating more Resolved, and the Resolved enable businesses to safely consider non-WFH operations.

For now, we continue physical distancing. We’ve done well with this (so says the news), but we must continue.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

The Resolved

Folks who’ve had it, survived and have gotten well. Are they:

• Immune to re-infection?
• Still contagious without new exposure?
• Contagious if they’re exposed to an infected person (or tiger)?
• How do we know?

The last answer is obvious: testing, testing, testing. This gets pretty granular; I’ll cover this in another post.

At the least, a Resolved will have antibodies that can defeat the virus with which doctors are doing serum testing. This is not a new treatment strategy (1889-1895), so I’m hopeful. Further, a Resolved could potentially go back to their jobs, helping to soften the blow on our economy and our companies .. if they meet the criteria (and others, I’m sure) from the list above.

Until you have had it .. and gotten over it, none of this applies to you or to me. “Behave like you have it ..“

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

A Ray of Hope .. and a Scary Image

I don’t agree with the light at the end of the tunnel statement bounced around .. not yet, anyway, but I am hopeful. Note that even though you can see the light, you’re still in the tunnel.

Nor am I with “game changer” statements .. through distancing, we are making progress on transmission, but not on therapy, non-proximity prevention, a vaccine or a cure. With that said, I’m a fan of treating symptoms if it gives the patient enough time to defeat the virus.

New York notes a possible flattening of the curve over the last few days. Italy and Spain as well. This means the physical distancing is working.

Then, there’s this bit from China: “The great crawl of China: Tens of thousands of Chinese tourists are stuck at a jam-packed tourist attraction after it reopened amid coronavirus pandemic“.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

“The Virus Is Unpredictable ..”

.. I disagree. I heard it on the news today .. I’m not even sure who said it.

It’s not. It’s quite predictable, actually:

• It is deadly, more so to the ‘at risk’ population, but potentially to all.
• It transmits person-to-person, with or without symptoms.
• Staying at home will reduce transmission .. this is the one weapon in our arsenal that can make real change right now.

We have enough data to model effectively, now referring to outbreaks as ‘waves’. These waves have predictable progress, crests (which impact health asset utilization in an area) and outcomes. Some of these data are impacted by age and population density, indicating we should all be cautious. Lessons learned in one wave can help planning in others.

One commentator likened to our present experiences to watching ‘a slow-motion car crash’. This does sound familiar: we can see the predictive, data-driven outcomes unfold before our very eyes. Unhappily, it feels like the lack of coordination, confusing messaging and general bickering are running the risk of making this worse for all.

What can we do? Well:

• Stay on target .. The Queen just addressed the UK (and the world).
• Limit our contact with others.
• Six feet apart.
• If we do have to go out, wear masks in public to reduce (not eliminate) the risk to ourselves and others.

Most important: stay home. Regardless of when the stay-at-home orders were implemented, Cities and States who have locked down are seeing slower growth of transmission by the metric of fewer cases.

We can only control ourselves. We can only contribute to the greater good by doing the right thing.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

What we are doing is working ..

.. So, let’s not change it. Let’s manage it.

Physical Distancing is working. The rate of detected cases are reducing, even with more testing .. even in the hot areas.

Testing, testing, testing.

Most of us are getting the right idea .. Even these guys: “A Florida county is reminding people to maintain a distance of at least one alligator between each other“.

On the other side .. There are still (eight, as of this writing) states who have not enforced social distancing. Dr. Brix doesn’t think this is a good idea: “Birx warns holdout states about social distancing“. Will they be the next post-Mardi Gras New Orleans?

Here’s the map from the New York Times: “Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count“. Updated fairly often. The CDC has an AAG that closes at 4pm daily.

Yes: some of the case counts look low .. But we must consider state population, population density and how much testing a state is doing. Given the aggressive nature of this virus, I suspect the per-capita numbers are not that far off. I am looking for these data.

We must pull together .. but by staying apart. For now.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

“I won’t .. “

Not me .. I will. I wore one yesterday to Costco and again today to Sprouts. I didn’t feel out of place, look silly or draw any stares (well, no more than normal) from anyone.

A mask.

Not so much the guy in the White House.

I’m not going to get political, but I am going to advocate for common sense:

• CDC  issued “Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission” today. In anticipation of this (it wasn’t actually a secret), I posted “Respect the Mask” earlier today.
• He, his VP and those around him are getting the rapid CoViD-19 (capitalization intentional, as here is how the virus was named .. I’m going back to all-caps hereafter) test on a regular basis. I agree with this: he, his VP and critical team .. not to mention the Chain of Command being tested on a regular basis is a very good thing.
• While a less-than N95 won’t protect you fully, it will likely protect others from you .. please recall COVID-19 can be transmitted asymptomatically .. that is, without symptoms. You may not know you have it and transmit it to others. Remember “Behave like you have it ..“? I do .. I wrote it. Nothing original therein .. Just common sense (again) when sorting a challenge with multiple unknowns.

Wear a mask or a scarf. Be careful. Stay informed.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

Respect the Mask

CDC guidance on masks for everyone to be issued today. Likely patterned after “Interim Guidance for the Use of Masks to Control Seasonal Influenza Virus Transmission“, but with A COVID-19 spin.

Masks do not make you invincible. Wearing one (even the N95 itself) does not empower you to ignore “Distancing .. Physical, not Social (please)” .. you still need to maintain our ‘new normal’ habits:

• Wash your hands
• Don’t touch your face
• Stay 6′ from everyone

Any mask (even a scarf) will give you some protection from some spray droplets from others (and others from yours, should you sneeze), but not 100%, and not from aerosolized droplets.

As always: “I’m not a Doctor ..” .. listen to the advice of the CDC or your healthcare provider.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

No Magic Bullet ..

Ordered and Commanded

15 will get you 30

Very happy to hear we’re extending beyond the original 15 daze here in The States to another 30 (depending on the state .. the real duration is yet to be determined, based on the data).

Latest word is April 30, which is far more reasonable than Easter (April 12th) .. other estimates take us into May (Texas is May 4).

We’re doing the proper things .. we’re staying at home, maintaining physical distance and connecting constantly.

Consistent and aware behavior will get us through this. Looking at data will get us through this. Working together will get us through this.

Not miracle cures,  holding your breath, gut feelings  or drinking chlorine. Please don’t.

Stay the course. Stay home. Make sure that only those who have to go out are safe to go out on our behalf:

• Medical Workers and retired medical workers (note: the latter group is now over 7,000).
• Supply Chain Workers (Truckers, UPS & FedEx, USPS) .. Costco, groceries and your porch are all full because of them.
• Delivery Workers (Amazon Prime (still at it) and Uber / Uber Eats (asking us not to move).
• Restaurant Workers adapting to curbside pickup and delivery (yes: it’s safe).

Follow the data. While the horrors of each day brings increasing top- and bottom-line counts, some rates are demonstrating things are slowing. This is because we’re managing our behavior.

“You can’t rush the science, but when the science points you in the right direction, then you can start rushing”.

Doctor Anthony Fauci .. October 24, 2001 on HealthDay News.

Holds true today.

We need to “Behave like you have it ..” .. All of us.

Stay close, stay home.