“The Virus Is Unpredictable ..”

.. I disagree. I heard it on the news today .. I’m not even sure who said it.

It’s not. It’s quite predictable, actually:

  • It is deadly, more so to the ‘at risk’ population, but potentially to all.
  • It transmits person-to-person, with or without symptoms.
  • Staying at home will reduce transmission .. this is the one weapon in our arsenal that can make real change right now.

We have enough data to model effectively, now referring to outbreaks as ‘waves’. These waves have predictable progress, crests (which impact health asset utilization in an area) and outcomes. Some of these data are impacted by age and population density, indicating we should all be cautious. Lessons learned in one wave can help planning in others.

One commentator likened to our present experiences to watching ‘a slow-motion car crash’. This does sound familiar: we can see the predictive, data-driven outcomes unfold before our very eyes. Unhappily, it feels like the lack of coordination, confusing messaging and general bickering are running the risk of making this worse for all.

What can we do? Well:

  • Stay on target .. The Queen just addressed the UK (and the world).
  • Limit our contact with others.
  • Six feet apart.
  • If we do have to go out, wear masks in public to reduce (not eliminate) the risk to ourselves and others.

Most important: stay home. Regardless of when the stay-at-home orders were implemented, Cities and States who have locked down are seeing slower growth of transmission by the metric of fewer cases.

We can only control ourselves. We can only contribute to the greater good by doing the right thing.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

About Michael Coates
I am a pragmatic evangelist. The products, services and solutions I write about fulfill real-world expectations and use cases. I stay up-to-date on real products I use and review, and share my thoughts here. I apply the same lens when designing an architecture, product or when writing papers. I am always looking for ways that technology can create or enhance a business opportunity .. not just technology for technology's sake. My CV says: Seasoned technology executive, leveraging years of experience with enterprise and integration architectural patterns, executed with healthy doses of business acumen and pragmatism. That's me. My web site says: Technology innovations provide a myriad of opportunities for businesses. That said, having the "latest and greatest" for its own sake isn't always a recipe for success. Business successes gained through exploiting innovation relies on analysis of how the new features will enhance your business followed by effective implementation. Goals vary far and wide: streamlining operations, improving customer experience, extending brand, and many more. In all cases, you must identify and collect the metrics you can apply to measure your success. Analysis must be holistic and balanced: business and operational needs must be considered when capitalizing on a new technology asset or opportunity.

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