“The Virus Is Unpredictable ..”

.. I disagree. I heard it on the news today .. I’m not even sure who said it.

It’s not. It’s quite predictable, actually:

• It is deadly, more so to the ‘at risk’ population, but potentially to all.
• It transmits person-to-person, with or without symptoms.
• Staying at home will reduce transmission .. this is the one weapon in our arsenal that can make real change right now.

We have enough data to model effectively, now referring to outbreaks as ‘waves’. These waves have predictable progress, crests (which impact health asset utilization in an area) and outcomes. Some of these data are impacted by age and population density, indicating we should all be cautious. Lessons learned in one wave can help planning in others.

One commentator likened to our present experiences to watching ‘a slow-motion car crash’. This does sound familiar: we can see the predictive, data-driven outcomes unfold before our very eyes. Unhappily, it feels like the lack of coordination, confusing messaging and general bickering are running the risk of making this worse for all.

What can we do? Well:

• Stay on target .. The Queen just addressed the UK (and the world).
• Limit our contact with others.
• Six feet apart.
• If we do have to go out, wear masks in public to reduce (not eliminate) the risk to ourselves and others.

Most important: stay home. Regardless of when the stay-at-home orders were implemented, Cities and States who have locked down are seeing slower growth of transmission by the metric of fewer cases.

We can only control ourselves. We can only contribute to the greater good by doing the right thing.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.