“I won’t .. “

Not me .. I will. I wore one yesterday to Costco and again today to Sprouts. I didn’t feel out of place, look silly or draw any stares (well, no more than normal) from anyone.

A mask.

Not so much the guy in the White House.

I’m not going to get political, but I am going to advocate for common sense:

• CDC  issued “Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission” today. In anticipation of this (it wasn’t actually a secret), I posted “Respect the Mask” earlier today.
• He, his VP and those around him are getting the rapid CoViD-19 (capitalization intentional, as here is how the virus was named .. I’m going back to all-caps hereafter) test on a regular basis. I agree with this: he, his VP and critical team .. not to mention the Chain of Command being tested on a regular basis is a very good thing.
• While a less-than N95 won’t protect you fully, it will likely protect others from you .. please recall COVID-19 can be transmitted asymptomatically .. that is, without symptoms. You may not know you have it and transmit it to others. Remember “Behave like you have it ..“? I do .. I wrote it. Nothing original therein .. Just common sense (again) when sorting a challenge with multiple unknowns.

Wear a mask or a scarf. Be careful. Stay informed.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

Respect the Mask

CDC guidance on masks for everyone to be issued today. Likely patterned after “Interim Guidance for the Use of Masks to Control Seasonal Influenza Virus Transmission“, but with A COVID-19 spin.

Masks do not make you invincible. Wearing one (even the N95 itself) does not empower you to ignore “Distancing .. Physical, not Social (please)” .. you still need to maintain our ‘new normal’ habits:

• Wash your hands
• Don’t touch your face
• Stay 6′ from everyone

Any mask (even a scarf) will give you some protection from some spray droplets from others (and others from yours, should you sneeze), but not 100%, and not from aerosolized droplets.

As always: “I’m not a Doctor ..” .. listen to the advice of the CDC or your healthcare provider.

Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.

No Magic Bullet ..

Ordered and Commanded

15 will get you 30

Very happy to hear we’re extending beyond the original 15 daze here in The States to another 30 (depending on the state .. the real duration is yet to be determined, based on the data).

Latest word is April 30, which is far more reasonable than Easter (April 12th) .. other estimates take us into May (Texas is May 4).

We’re doing the proper things .. we’re staying at home, maintaining physical distance and connecting constantly.

Consistent and aware behavior will get us through this. Looking at data will get us through this. Working together will get us through this.

Not miracle cures,  holding your breath, gut feelings  or drinking chlorine. Please don’t.

Stay the course. Stay home. Make sure that only those who have to go out are safe to go out on our behalf:

• Medical Workers and retired medical workers (note: the latter group is now over 7,000).
• Supply Chain Workers (Truckers, UPS & FedEx, USPS) .. Costco, groceries and your porch are all full because of them.
• Delivery Workers (Amazon Prime (still at it) and Uber / Uber Eats (asking us not to move).
• Restaurant Workers adapting to curbside pickup and delivery (yes: it’s safe).

Follow the data. While the horrors of each day brings increasing top- and bottom-line counts, some rates are demonstrating things are slowing. This is because we’re managing our behavior.

“You can’t rush the science, but when the science points you in the right direction, then you can start rushing”.

Doctor Anthony Fauci .. October 24, 2001 on HealthDay News.

Holds true today.

We need to “Behave like you have it ..” .. All of us.

Stay close, stay home.

Stepping Up

A lot of uncertainty, lots of medical supply shortages and a lot of folks who cannot care for themselves.

Thanks to all .. Companies and individuals who do. An incredibly short list, because there are so many out there:

• People Magazine: “Delta Offers Free Flights for Medical Professionals to ‘Critical Areas’ Impacted by Coronavirus“. Note these are to emerging hotspots Georgia, Louisiana and Michigan, and the list will likely change. Please see the article for the email addresses.
• People also advises “Hertz Is Offering Free Rental Cars to New York City Healthcare Workers” until April 30.
• U-Haul: “College Students: U-Haul Offers 30 Days Free Self-Storage amid Coronavirus Outbreak“.
• Shop and Stop:”Important Information For Our Customers Regarding Coronavirus and Updates on Store Hours & For Online Customers“, including opening stores earlier and providing a separate entrance for at-risk populations. Other stores have done this as well; check your local area.
• Lots of companies are making hand sanitizer, including Louis Vuitton, L’Oreal, AirCo, Endless West (molecular whiskey), and a ton of distilleries.
• Other companies are focusing on ventilators, including SpaceX and Tesla, Dyson, Meditronic (doubling their capacity) and more.
• Apple, Facebook and SalesForce donated millions of masks to healthcare workers and, with other tech firms, are sourcing more.
• Burger King will provide two kid’s meals at no charge with a purchase from the Burger King mobile app. The link to the offer is on the home page and you must sign in to redeem. Pick-up only.
• Online telemedicine providers enable patients to get face-to-face support. Many are provided at no charge for clinicians and patients. Contact your doctor or local hospital (by phone, please) for references. I’ll look more closely at this list in a few days.
• Lots of folks delivering groceries to their homebound neighbors .. far too many to list here.
• Neighbors helping neighbors .. time to plant tomato plants .. far too many to list here.
• Oh .. CNN had a short story on “Victory Gardens” (link to the WWII war effort). The story cited community gardens springing up, as concern for trips to the grocery stores and supply chain risks may be growing. I cannot find that story at the moment, will update when I do.

Don’t forget the kids:

• Good Housekeeping: “10 Fun Virtual Birthday Party Ideas You Can Do While Social Distancing“.
• Parade posts “Avoid Cabin Fever With These 125 Ideas to Keep Kids Entertained During the Coronavirus Crisis“.
• CNN posts: “Keep kids entertained and educated with these 20 activities (some assembly required)”.
• evite says “Life’s Better Together,® Even When Apart”, including an ongoing kit of virtual solutions get-togethers.
• There are a number of paid services out there for kids.

Not the least: our brave healthcare workers .. present, retired and volunteer, who are putting themselves and their families at risk by helping the rest of us.

Stay home for this lot so they can stay at work for us.

Be safe.

Need the Facts

When facts are numbers, we need the numbers.

Caveat: “I’m not a Doctor ..“. I am a Technical Sales Strategist .. I’ll detail this at one point or another. Read on, please.

Our agents manage customer engagements, performing outreach to identify sales opportunities for our clients and move these opportunities along to close. This is typically represented as a funnel .. just like the one in your kitchen. Unlike the one in your kitchen, which gives you a wide opening to move something into a smaller opening, the Sales Funnel demonstrates how a large number of potential customers make their way to a closed sale. As you can surmise, not everyone who expresses an initial interest will actually make a purchase:

Thanks to Upwork for the image.

This does not relate 1:1 to the Coronavirus, but here’s a short analogy:

• Total population: count
• Total infected: count / percentage
• Resolve on their own: count / percentage
• Total hospitalized: count / percentage
• Resolved in hospital: count / percentage
• Don’t resolve in the hospital

As you may surmise, that is oversimplified .. and you might also guess, there are temporal (time) and severity aspects to these steps, i.e.:

• Duration for self-resolution
• Length of hospital stay (impacts bed, supplies and services utilization)
• The severity for a hospital stay (impacts regular beds, ICU beds, equipment, supplies and services)
• Ventilator required (much-needed devices, noting there is a finite count)
• Length of time on ventilators (impacts available ventilators for the next patient)
• Age of the patient

.. and lots more .. Intermediate things like turning beds, turning rooms, turning ventilators, and so on.

Last, each country has its own set of cases, differing start dates, climates, etc.

While trying to calculate the funnel, I stumbled across Worldometers: Coronavirus which broke out the top-line numbers nicely for me .. from there the percentages are easy to calculate .. but the denominators are unknown:

• How many tests?
• How many positive / negative?
• How many resolved?

Facts matter. The numbers matter.

Please stay at home and protect everyone while you do your research.

So .. It’s Math

Shout out to Andrew Yang. He loves math (Make Americans Think Harder).

Good on ya .. I’m with you.

Caveat: “I’m not a Doctor ..“. Read on, please.

I snapped this at 1804 today (3/23/2020), right before the Coronavirus task force briefing.

Simple division shows:

• Global: 16,400 deaths divided by 374,000 cases is a staggering 4.385% mortality rate.
• US: 520 deaths divided by 42,200 cases is a horrifying 1.232% mortality rate.

In both cases, the denominators (the number of tests conducted that show positive COVID-19 results) are likely inaccurate. Lots of folks who may have (and are shedding) the virus are not being tested, as they’re not showing symptoms, and due to the shortage of tests and PPE, they’re not being treated because of this.

Unhappily, it’s likely that all the deaths are being tested (to ensure they’re not occurring for other reasons), contributing to the higher death count, and therefore, the percentage increase.

None of this is easy. There is a disproportionate number of deaths in Italy, but the average age is ~80. Then, there are way too many (well-attended) beaches open in The States with folks who can shed the virus (see above) .. who are contributing to the spread.

We’re social distancing here, and we’re making it work. We need to continue to make it work. I’m blessed with a job where WFH is possible for me .. I don’t have to endanger myself or others. Too many others aren’t so lucky .. WFH is not an option. Local support through take-out and services provide little comfort to this lot, which means the government needs to help make up the shortfall.

Last, I started this post at 2044 (three hours after I shot the first snap). I took another snap at 2107 with the Cuomo(s) (Chris of CNN and Andrew, Governor of New York):

In that short time, the US number has climbed to 541 deaths against 42,663 cases .. a more-horrifying 1.268% mortality rate. Each one of those represents a person. A loved one. Brother. Sister. Father. Mother. Friend.

Stay home, please. The spread is happening. Help us slow it.

Apply the Lessons of History ..

.. to avoid repeating it. We will best avoid panic  with a few simple rules:

• Hear (and tell) the Truth: Accurate (and more) information helps us know what to do. Don’t share or forward dodgy information .. use your head.
• Social distance: it’s real, apply these lessons. Give way to each other when walking or moving about in public spaces.
• Keep clean: I shared a link in “I’m not a Doctor ..” with a reference to why handwashing (with ordinary soap!) is very effective.
• Science matters: listen to it.

We stopped Ebola with proactive changes to our behavior. This is the time to do the same.

Many thanks to healthcare workers around the country. They are on the front lines and are the most at risk. This is one of hundreds of memes: “We stay at work for you, please stay at home for us“.

Stay home.

We will get through this .. as individuals, families and a country. Stay strong.

Behave like you have it ..

.. Please.

I referenced ‘asymptomatic’ in “I’m not a Doctor ..“. This is where you don’t know you have it, but can still ‘shed’ (i.e., spread) it to others.

CNN reported on March 14th of a high level of cases spread by people who don’t have symptoms .. the numbers even suggest a majority. From China, they’re citing 4 out of 5. More concerning, CDC reports a surge in initial hospitalized cases in the 20-54 age group. This is the group that was previously thought to be resistant to catching (although, they may be shedding .. still a concern) the virus, so many haven’t heeded the warnings.

Last, a now-terrifying video of a Clearwater Beach, Florida Spring Break .. packed to the gills.

Please: Behave like you have it. It’s critical to all of us.