So .. It’s Math

Shout out to Andrew Yang. He loves math (Make Americans Think Harder).

Good on ya .. I’m with you.


Caveat
: “I’m not a Doctor ..“. Read on, please.

20200323_180436I snapped this at 1804 today (3/23/2020), right before the Coronavirus task force briefing.

Simple division shows:

  • Global: 16,400 deaths divided by 374,000 cases is a staggering 4.385% mortality rate.
  • US: 520 deaths divided by 42,200 cases is a horrifying 1.232% mortality rate.

In both cases, the denominators (the number of tests conducted that show positive COVID-19 results) are likely inaccurate. Lots of folks who may have (and are shedding) the virus are not being tested, as they’re not showing symptoms, and due to the shortage of tests and PPE, they’re not being treated because of this.

Unhappily, it’s likely that all the deaths are being tested (to ensure they’re not occurring for other reasons), contributing to the higher death count, and therefore, the percentage increase.

None of this is easy. There is a disproportionate number of deaths in Italy, but the average age is ~80. Then, there are way too many (well-attended) beaches open in The States with folks who can shed the virus (see above) .. who are contributing to the spread.

We’re social distancing here, and we’re making it work. We need to continue to make it work. I’m blessed with a job where WFH is possible for me .. I don’t have to endanger myself or others. Too many others aren’t so lucky .. WFH is not an option. Local support through take-out and services provide little comfort to this lot, which means the government needs to help make up the shortfall.

Last, I started this post at 2044 (three hours after I shot the first snap). I took another snap at 2107 with the Cuomo(s) (Chris of CNN and Andrew, Governor of New York):

20200323_210810

In that short time, the US number has climbed to 541 deaths against 42,663 cases .. a more-horrifying 1.268% mortality rate. Each one of those represents a person. A loved one. Brother. Sister. Father. Mother. Friend.

Stay home, please. The spread is happening. Help us slow it.

About Michael Coates
I am a pragmatic evangelist. The products, services and solutions I write about fulfill real-world expectations and use cases. I stay up-to-date on real products I use and review, and share my thoughts here. I apply the same lens when designing an architecture, product or when writing papers. I am always looking for ways that technology can create or enhance a business opportunity .. not just technology for technology's sake. My CV says: Seasoned technology executive, leveraging years of experience with enterprise and integration architectural patterns, executed with healthy doses of business acumen and pragmatism. That's me. My web site says: Technology innovations provide a myriad of opportunities for businesses. That said, having the "latest and greatest" for its own sake isn't always a recipe for success. Business successes gained through exploiting innovation relies on analysis of how the new features will enhance your business followed by effective implementation. Goals vary far and wide: streamlining operations, improving customer experience, extending brand, and many more. In all cases, you must identify and collect the metrics you can apply to measure your success. Analysis must be holistic and balanced: business and operational needs must be considered when capitalizing on a new technology asset or opportunity.

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