The Numbers are Good ..
April 14, 2020 Leave a comment
They are .. we’re seeing progress because of our mitigation efforts. Even the hardest-hit New York is seeing a downturn.
However, COVID-19 has not changed:
- is still highly-contagious .. droplets, aerosol and contact.
- Transmits without symptoms .. some who have it don’t know and may unintentionally spread it.
- Is still ~10x as deadly as the flu .. we are still trying to understand the actual denominator
- Remains on surfaces for longer than you’d think.
The overall health situation has not changed:
- No widespread testing.
- No vaccine.
- No reliable therapy.
- With the exception of “The Resolved“, no way of knowing who has had it already.
- Medical workers are still the front line and we must protect them.
The testing situation has not changed:
- How do you get a detection test? The CDC has a Self-Checker that looks for symptoms.
- How do you get an antibody test?
- How do know if you’ve been exposed?
- How do you know if you’re contagious?
- We’re not doing reliable contract tracing .. This may not even be widely possible until May.
Personal protection activities have not changed:
- Stay home.
- Wash your hands.
- Cough into your arm.
- Don’t shake hands.
- Don’t touch your face.
- Wipe down surfaces.
- Keep a two-meter distance from others.
- If walking / running don’t follow too closely behind others.
- Wear a mask to protect others from your droplets.
- In short .. “Behave Like You Have It“.
On work:
- Who can go back to work safely?
- If only the Resolved, are there enough workers to justify opening offices? Stores? Malls?
- Which workers should go back to work first?
- Is there a way that workers could consider temporary positions in essential roles?
- How will employers keep workers safe? I talk about this a bit in “The ‘New Normal’ .. ‘New-New Normal’?“
As the weather turns, we all want to get out. We want to get back to our jobs, our parks, our bars, our restaurants, our churches as soon as we can. I’d like to go to the grocery without hazmat gear. I need a hair cut (candidly I need them all cut).
The Federal Government wants to open the country ‘with a bang’ .. but there’s simply no evidence that enough has changed for this to occur without endangering the public. Please pay attention to the science.
Stay connected. Stay safe. Stay home.
About Michael Coates
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